On December 1, 2022, the eye-catching National IV emission standards for non-road mobile machinery will be officially implemented. According to the requirements of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, from now on, all non-road mobile machinery below 560kW (including 560kW) produced, imported and sold and the diesel engines installed must meet the requirements of the national fourth-stage emission standards. Otherwise, code registration will not be carried out on the information management platform, and non-road mobile machinery without code registration will be discontinued. Various construction machinery companies also launched their own new national four products in the first place. So far, the construction machinery industry has officially entered the "National Four" era
Then, after the official implementation of the National IV emission standards, what impact or impact will it bring to the construction machinery industry, especially the market in 2023?
Green emission reduction benefits the country and the people
The main purpose of implementing the National IV emission standards is to practice the "dual carbon" strategy, implement energy conservation and emission reduction, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Nitrogen oxides are the main source of environmental pollution, and the formation of acid rain and smog is related to this. As early as 2020, my country formulated the "double carbon" goal, requiring "strive to achieve carbon peak in 2030, and strive to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060". The construction machinery industry has always been a major polluter. To realize the "dual carbon strategy", the construction machinery industry is naturally the top priority. First of all, the "National IV" emission standard is more environmentally friendly than the "National III" emission standard. It is estimated that the emission of nitrogen oxides can be reduced by 13%-45%, and the emission of particulate matter can be reduced by 50%-94%, which will directly reduce construction machinery. equipment to pollute the environment. Second, the effect of environmental supervision has been improved. By remotely monitoring the operating status of the emission control system, it is ensured that it functions normally during actual use and prevents pollution control devices from failing or being damaged.Third, the quality of the air environment can be greatly improved. The emission limits of NOx, HC and PM have all been raised. According to estimates, by 2025, 375,000 tons of NOx and 32,000 tons of PM will be reduced, and the emission reduction ratios will reach 12.5% and 19.3% respectively. Fourth, it can enhance the international competitiveness of construction machinery products. The national IV emission control level and technical requirements are equivalent to the current standards of Europe and the United States, achieving international standards. At the same time, it is more advanced in the actual emission test of the whole machine. Fifth, emission upgrades will speed up the replacement of old equipment, and high-emission equipment will also be eliminated, which will help the sales of new machines, especially the popularization of clean energy, mainly electricity. It can be seen that the national four emission upgrade can not only reduce environmental pollution, promote energy conservation and emission reduction, but also speed up the replacement of old equipment, which is helpful to the development of the construction machinery industry.
Increased costs Greater focus on fuel efficiency
However, the upgrade from National III to National IV is not just adding a simple filtering system, but a complex process of technological upgrading. The state clearly stipulates that 37-560kW non-road mobile machinery that meets the National IV emissions should be equipped with a wall-flow particulate filter (DPF), and non-road mobile machinery with different power levels adopts different emission control technologies (such as DPF/DOC+DPF /DOC+DPF+SCR), will also cause different cost increases; the quality requirements for various oil products are also different. If the oil product does not meet the requirements during use, it will cause serious consequences to the diesel engine, aftertreatment and the operation of the whole machine. Some people have done statistics. Compared with similar equipment, the cost of National IV vehicles is at least 20,000 yuan more than that of National III vehicles. What should the user do if the emission standard is found to be unqualified during the use of the National IV equipment? According to the interpretation of the Jiangsu Provincial Non-road Mobile Machinery Environmental Protection Investigation Leading Working Group on the issues related to the National IV, if the ecological environment department fails to pass the on-site inspection, the equipment owner (that is, the user) will be punished first, but if it can be proved that it is For the quality problems of the equipment itself, the ecological environment department will trace the responsibility of the manufacturer.Therefore, if the customer finds that there is a problem with the production quality, it must give feedback to the company as soon as possible. If it is a large batch, it needs to give feedback to the General Administration of Market Supervision for an orderly recall. In a relatively downward market environment, will the increase in costs affect the willingness of end consumers to purchase? Industry veterans believe that in the short term, there may be some impact. But in the long run, it shouldn't have much impact. This is because emission upgrading is a national action, which has been understood and supported by the vast majority of consumers. Only by using equipment that meets emission requirements can we gain more opportunities and room for development. Although emission upgrades will increase costs, from the perspective of the entire product life cycle, using National IV equipment is more fuel-efficient and cost-effective than National III equipment. Through technological innovation, the National IV engine has more complete combustion and better fuel economy, which can help users better save fuel costs and use costs.
These three types of companies are facing a reshuffle
Each emission upgrade is a process of self-growth and self-improvement of the enterprise. In the process of upgrading emissions, those companies that stick to the rules, lack innovation, and lack strength will inevitably be eliminated by the market. The author believes that these three types of enterprises may be eliminated by the market in priority during the emission upgrade process. One is enterprises that cannot bear the pressure of rising costs. Upgrading to National IV will inevitably face an increase in cost. From the price point of view, the cost of National IV products is expected to increase by 15%-20% compared with National III products. Those enterprises that focus on low-cost competition may not be able to cope with the pressure brought by the rising cost of National IV products.Second, enterprises with insufficient technical reserves. Country IV will have a qualitative leap in technical complexity compared to Country III. Many small and medium-sized enterprises cannot keep up with the requirements in terms of technical reserves, lack core competitiveness, and are easily eliminated. Faced with this problem, some construction machinery companies may find another way. In addition to independent innovation, they can also cooperate with universities and research institutes to overcome technical problems and increase their core competitiveness. The third is enterprises that are stuck in the past and lack innovation. "Technological innovation" is always the core driving force for the development of construction machinery enterprises. Only companies that are constantly innovating will go further in the future. For the upgrade of China IV, construction machinery companies should also seize this opportunity to transform and upgrade their products in combination with the real needs of the market. The intelligentization of construction machinery and unmanned driving can be combined to develop cleaner alternative energy sources and take the road of sustainable development.
Affected by various factors such as the market downturn, periodic epidemic outbreaks in multiple places, and real estate sluggishness, the market since 2022 has made many people feel worried. On the one hand, there is insufficient construction due to the decline in engineering volume; on the other hand, frequent and continuous epidemics in many places have caused many places to fail to start normally. Faced with heavy pressure, many construction machinery users are struggling on the survival line. In this case, the National IV emissions will come as scheduled. When it comes to the market in 2023, many people in the industry expressed unspeakable optimism. On the one hand, the continuous growth of the market in the previous period is too large, and it will take some time to digest the existing inventory; on the other hand, it is the downward pressure brought by the epidemic and the real estate market. Due to the early consumption of the market, 2023 will be the first major test for upgrading to National IV. The construction machinery market under the superimposed influence of users' advance purchases, cash shortages, and popularization of new equipment will experience a relatively large decline. Judgments from dealers for 2023 are even less optimistic.Affected by multiple factors such as price wars, the living conditions of many dealers continued to deteriorate, and some even reached the verge of collapse. A dealer with many years of agency experience said that the company's National IV products have been put on the shelves, but there are fewer customers who come to buy, and their current main task is to digest the inventory. "The popularization of China IV requires a process." A boss of an engine company told the author, "Now the user's acceptance of China IV products is low, and a process of market popularization is required." A person in charge of a well-known domestic brand told the author that affected by the epidemic and Affected by market demand, the sales of both National III products and National IV products are not satisfactory this year. Some experts pointed out that, in this case, on the one hand, the company should plan in advance to reduce the total market sales while ensuring an increase in market share; on the other hand, it must tap internal potential to ensure that the company still has room for profit in the cold market. The future construction machinery market must belong to those enterprises and individuals who dare to embrace change.
